Will Australia ever own Virginia-class SSNs – Turnbull argues no

In an address to the National Press Club this week, former Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull called for a proper and sensible debate on what he perceived to be a very high potential that the Australian Defence Force will never be able to buy US nuclear submarines.

“Neither the government or the opposition are confronting the reality of the AUKUS submarine plan, neither are managing the risks responsibly and as a consequence the Australian people are being gravely misled as to the risks,” Mr Turnbull said.

“Will we ever get them?

“In truth, in my view, there is very little prospect of us ever receiving them.

“The Virginia-class submarines are the most valuable, and survivable, assets in the US Navy – and the USN does not have enough of them.

“Right now the US Navy has 49 SSNs including 23 very old Los Angeles-class and two older SeaWolf-class boats all due to retire in the normal course of events by 2030.

“The older boats are retiring faster than they can be replaced.

“The upshot will be that by 2032 the USN will certainly have much fewer SSNs than it does today and is likely to have a fleet of only 32 boats.

“On the most optimistic view, the USN in 2032 will be at least 25 SSNs short of the 66 boats which is their goal.”

Mr Turnbull outlined in detail how billions of dollars of investment in the US Navy’s problems have failed to move the dial on lagging production rates.

“There are comprehensive reports that set all this out [and] the United Sates congress is far better informed about AUKUS than the Australian Parliament.

“This is no doubt why the Congress made the transfer of any Virginia-class submarines to Australia conditional on the President certifying 270 days before such transfer that, among other things, the transfer would not degrade the undersea capabilities of the USN and that the US submarine industrial base had the capacity to supply both the needs of the USN and Australia.

“So, in 2031, the next President after Mr Trump, will be faced with a Navy short of SSNs and a threat from the Chinese Navy likely to be greater than it is today.

“So, do we really expect the President would give the certification that the USN does not need three of its most valuable and survivable assets?

“Even if you do not believe the risk of getting no subs is very high, there is plainly a risk.

“It was contemplated by the parties and reflected in the legislation – it is part of the deal.

“So, if in 2031 or 2032 the President were to decide their Navy would get preference over ours, then we could not say we were let down, or that the US had reneged – the risk of non delivery was assumed by Australia’s government with their eyes wide open.

“But this risk is unacknowledged by either the government or the opposition [and] neither of them have any plan to take account of it.

“In other words there is no recognition of the very high risk that in the next decade and much of the one after, Australia will have no submarines at all.

“Speculating as to whether Donald Trump likes AUKUS or not is pointless – the critical decision will be taken by his successor.

“And that successor, no matter how many koalas on the mantelpiece, will act in the interest of the US Navy.

“So what do we do if we have no submarines?

“Those who say we should not ask the question are saying we should do nothing to plan how to respond to a clear, known and foreseeable risk whose chances of arising are increasing.

“The Americans however do have a Plan B – and from their point of view it is entirely consistent with AUKUS.

“This plan is one where Australia has no submarines at all and instead purchases other long range strike capabilities – drones, missiles and even the B21 stealth bomber.

“As for submarines the USN would base a fleet of SSNs in Perth and (hopefully) provide us with the submarine protection we could no longer do for ourselves.

“This option is set out in some detail in the Congressional Research Service’s lengthy report on AUKUS Pillar 1.

“But, even if we were to go down that route, we can’t just wait until 2032 – we will have to start making plans and acquisitions now.

“On the other hand, if we do not want to end up with no submarines, for at least a decade or more at least, then we need a plan to secure some.”

Mr Turnbull said that the most urgent thing we need is an honest conversation about this issue and he said he had no confidence that the Australian Navy or the Department of Defence would engage in this unless they were directed to do so by government.

“Truth and transparency build trust [and] at the moment we’ve got neither on this issue.

“Hope is not a strategy, it is better described as “danger’s comforter” a solace for those who are already lost.

“We do need a Plan B and not one where the B stands for blindness – as in, wilful blindness.

The above comments were extracted from a speech by Malcolm Turnbull on 1 April 2025 to the National Press Club, which you can view in full, here.

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